> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bigbrainsresearch.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # POWER • RISK - URL: https://www.bigbrainsresearch.com/power-risk/ - Published: 2026-09-23T03:58:55.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-23T03:58:55.000Z - Author: Simon Cartledge - Tags: News 24 September 2026 ### **Risk** ***Currencies: USD vs JPY, USD vs CNY*** Despite efforts to strengthen the yen, the currency continues to drift downwards against the dollar towards its early September low, At its September 17–18, 2026 meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) delivered a widely expected but still significant tightening move. The BOJ raised its benchmark uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 basis points, from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest policy rate since 1995\. The decision was approved by a 7–2 vote; board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissented, arguing against a hike at that time. The yen appreciated – but then fell back again, as it did after Scott Bessent’s internation at the start of the month: ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/ff/8d/ff8dd589-5110-4a84-b304-881d046911ae/content/images/2026/09/image-1.png) China’s yuan, meanwhile continued its glacial appreciation against the dollar. Since the start of 2025, its value has risen by 8%. But this isn’t addressing what US and EU officials have been calling: eliminating most of the estimated undervaluation, which recent critical voices put at roughly 20–30%.hile continued its glacial appreciation against the dollar. Since the start of 2025, its value has risen by 8%. But this isn’t addressing what US and EU officials have been calling: eliminating most of the estimated undervaluation, which recent critical voices put at roughly 20–30%. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/ff/8d/ff8dd589-5110-4a84-b304-881d046911ae/content/images/2026/09/image-3.png) In practical FX terms, that would imply something like: If the market rate is around 6.70 RMB/USD, a 20% appreciation would move it toward roughly 5.3–5.4 RMB/USD. A 30% appreciation would imply something closer to 4.7–4.8 RMB/USD. They rarely state those exact numbers in public, but the logic is reduce China’s export price advantage, shrink the US/EU trade deficits with China by shifting some global demand toward US/EU goods and services. Could it happen? After the Plaza Accord (signed 22 September 1985), the yen appreciated very sharply against the dollar. Just before the Accord (Sept 1985): around ¥240–242/$. End of 1985: about ¥200/$ - roughly a 17–20% appreciation of the yen in just a few months. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/ff/8d/ff8dd589-5110-4a84-b304-881d046911ae/content/images/2026/09/image-4.png) 1986: around ¥153/$ by year‑end - from \~¥242 to \~¥153 is about a 37% rise in the yen’s value vs the dollar in \~15 months. 1988: near ¥120/$ - from \~¥240 to \~¥120 is essentially a doubling of the yen’s value (about 50% appreciation in yen terms) over roughly three years. By 1995: the yen reached around ¥80/$, meaning the post‑Plaza appreciation from 1985 to 1995 totaled roughly 70–75%+ in yen terms. In percentage terms. First few months (Sept–Nov 1985): yen up about 20%. First year (Sept 1985–end 1986): yen up roughly 35–40%. Three years (1985–1988): yen up about 50% (from \~240 to \~120). Ten years (1985–1995): yen up around 70–75%+ (from \~240 to \~80). So the Plaza Accord triggered a rapid, large‑scale revaluation of the yen—far faster and larger than the kind of “glacial” moves seen in the RMB in recent years. ***Xi in New York*** Expectations for the Trump-Xi summit are low. The two leaders will likely meet for 90-120 minutes of formal talks. Could Trump do something stupid? Possibly. It seems unlikely that Xi wil press for anything much, even on Taiwan – the status quo suits his view that China’s advantage lies with time. He may make conciliatory noises over Iran, but won’t commit to anything more. Yet China cannot be happy with US actions,especially its new sanctions law targeting Russian energy buyers, including China. On 18 September, Trump signed into law the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026\. This strengthens sanctions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran, plis authorises tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and natural gas, with China named among those who could be targeted. Also on 18 September, the Republican chair of the House China Committee, John Moolenaar, urged Trump to take a tough line with Xi, calling for tighter technology restrictions on China, greater consequences for its support for Iran, rejection of Chinese objections to US arms sales and security cooperation with Taiwan and Asian allies. Moolenaar’s points reflect domestic political pressure in Washington to maintain or increase hardline policies toward Beijing. ***Li Qiang visits Shanghai*** China’s number 2, Premier Li Qiang, made an inspection visit to Shanghai where he stressed the importance of accelerating emerging and future industries and strengthening advanced manufacturing. His trip came less than a week after China’s National Advanced Manufacturing Conference. In Shanghai he visited the National Artificial Intelligence Application Pilot Base, where he inspected a range of robotic products and heard reports on “AI+” applications and the construction of an AI factory. Li called for integrating manufacturing with digital technologies and further advancing “AI+manufacturing” and said that researchers should provide solutions to help companies, especially small and medium-sized companies, carry out “smartization” upgrades in an efficient and low-cost way to strengthen their development momentum and competitiveness. Under Xi Jinping, China sees its future as lying in claiming and maintaining leadership in technology. The risks: a) it pays too much attention to this and neglects other parts of the economy. b) the returns on this aren’t as big as hoped for – technology doesn’t deliver great value/strips other parts of the economy of value. ### **Power** ***Alibaba’s T-Head unveils new AI chip*** 22 September 2026 Alibaba’s T-Head Semiconductor unveiled a next-generation AI training and inference chip, the Zhenwu V900, which it described as China’s most powerful in computing performance, delivering roughly three times the capability of its predecessor and targeting trillion-parameter-scale models. Mass production and commercial sales are scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2027\. The announcement underscores rapid progress in China’s domestic AI chip sector and a broader push for technological self-reliance amid US export controls. Sources: [Global Times](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1371127.shtml?ref=bigbrainsresearch.com), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3368338/alibaba-teases-10-trillion-parameter-model-debuts-chinas-most-powerful-ai-chip?ref=bigbrainsresearch.com) [Subscribe](#/portal/) to receive updates on the launch of our full services.